Likely Democratic voters in New York are warming up to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, but Hillary Clinton still enjoys a commanding lead in the state heading into next Tuesday’s primary.
In polling results released this morning by the Siena Research Institute, Clinton is 10 points ahead of Sanders, 52-42 percent, reducing her lead from March 8 by 11 points. In that poll, Clinton was ahead, 55-34 percent.
As for the Republican race, the Siena numbers have front-runner Donald Trump with a 23 percent lead over Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 50-27 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is in third place with 17 percent. Siena’s March 8 poll included Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who has since dropped out of the race. The March 8 poll had Trump with 45 percent of the vote, up by 27 points over Kasich and Rubio at 18 percent. Cruz was at 11 percent.
“The younger voters are feeling the ‘Bern,’ but the question is will they come out and vote in large numbers, as older voters historically do.”
— Steven Greenberg
Siena Research Institute pollster
Among likely Democratic voters, Sanders has a slightly better favorable rating, 75-20 percent, compared to Clinton’s 73-25 percent. Trump’s favorability rating is 58-38 among likely Republican voters, compared to Kasich’s 57-31. Cruz was well back in third at 40-55 percent.
“While Clinton continues to hold a double-digit lead over Sanders, the Brooklyn-born Sanders has tightened the race in the last month over Clinton,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Sanders has widened his lead among voters under 35 to a whopping 52 points, up from 17 points, while Clinton leads among voters over [age] 55 by 22 points, although that’s down from a 39-point lead with older voters. The younger voters are feeling the ‘Bern,’ but the question is will they come out and vote in large numbers, as older voters historically do.”
As for the Republican race in New York, it’s hard to see how Trump could lose according to Greenberg.
“Trump looks like he will cruise to victory in his home state, as Cruz did in Texas and Kasich in Ohio,” said Greenberg. “The real question is will he get a majority of Republican votes or simply a high plurality? Trump has a 19-point lead with women and an even larger 27-point lead with men. He leads by 34 points in New York City, 20 points in the downstate suburbs and 23 points upstate.”
When asked “which candidate don’t Republicans want to see leading their ticket?” Cruz leads that category with 40 percent. Trump is second at 31 percent with Kasich at 25 percent. Democrats feel the same way.
“Not surprisingly, Democrats view Trump and Cruz overwhelmingly unfavorably, while they only view Kasich moderately unfavorably,” said Greenberg. “Similarly, nearly nine in 10 Republicans view Clinton unfavorably and two-thirds view Sanders unfavorably.”
The Siena poll was conducted April 6-11 by telephone calls conducted in English to 538 likely Democratic primary voters and 469 likely Republican primary voters.