Weather forecasters can’t be perfect

PHOTOGRAPHER: Erica Miller

Merrick Shea, 8, plays football in the snow outside his house on Schuyler Drive in Saratoga Springs last Friday.

The March 2 weather forecast was a nightmare challenge in the immediate Capital District. I know. I was one of the forecasters, retired now, but still with an addiction for a forecast challenge.

Like many forecasters, my snowfall numbers were initially way off.

I have heard it a million times: “It must be great to be in the profession of weather forecasting, where you can be paid to be wrong much of the time.” All I will say about that is this: People in many other professions make mistakes too, as we are all human.

We never claim to totally nail it, even the temperature. Most of the time, we are within a few degrees of what we forecast. Let’s say we forecast a high of 85 and it only hits 82. That’s no big deal. It won’t impact what you do.

March 2 was no exception on the temperature accuracy. Most forecasters were only off by a few degrees. However, in this case, a couple of degrees meant the difference between a cold rain and a heavy wet snow. Unfortunately, this slight error generated a huge societal impact.

The computer models the weather forecasters used conflicted more than usual. Often a blend or average of the models works best, but not in this case.

Even with all these challenges, hats should go off to the National Weather Service of Albany , which quickly updated the forecast when it saw the white snow of the storm’s eye, a lot whiter than earlier thought.

Hugh Johnson
Albany
The writer is a retired National Weather Service meteorologist.