Often when choosing whether to bet a race, I like to consider the value of the bet.
When a horse’s odds get too low, it is often not worth the risk for such a low return. Favorites only win about a third of races, and even if you think a certain entry is far and away the best in the field and warrants a greater chance of winning, the risk may not be worthwhile for a paltry return.
I suspect such a dilemma will come up in the Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks, where morning line favorite Tonalist’s Shape (9-5) is the most proven filly in the field. She has won six of her seven outings and, of the entrants, has the top dirt speed figures and the jockey with the best win percentage this year. She has not raced in two months, but won in each of her last two outings off layoffs. She has never run at 1 1/8 miles, but neither has any other entrant. She feels like the type of entrant the public will back.
To combat the low price, consider keying her into the top of an exotic bet, or just embrace the popular interest and hope to celebrate with the bettor next to you.
- FIRST RACE: 5-Holland, 1-Bajan Rum, 3-Mo Mischief, 2-Momos.
- SECOND RACE: 6-Catch That Party, 1-Mr. Kringle, 7-Zipalong, 3-Winning Factor.
- THIRD RACE: 1-Domestic Spending, 4-Money Moves, 7-Decorated Invader, 6-Ever Dangerous.
- FOURTH RACE: 7-Letmetakethiscall, 1-Baby Boss, 5-Archumybaby, 2-Lady By Choice.
- FIFTH RACE: 6-Oak Hill, 10-Red Flag Alert, 1-Vicarage, 2-Futuro.
- SIXTH RACE: 8-Breakthrough, 6-Zippy Baby, 9-Girl Dad, 3-Nautilus.
- SEVENTH RACE: 2-Binkster, 1-Yaupon, 3-Blindwillie Mctell, 4-Kosciuszko.
- EIGHTH RACE: 8-Flowers For Lisa, 4-Singapore Trader, 7-Shalako, 2-Kumar.
- NINTH RACE: 7-Digital Age, 2-Ramsey Solution, 8-Midnight Tea Time, 9-Monarchs Glen.
- TENTH RACE: 1-Tonalist’s Shape, 6-Paris Lights, 5-Crystal Ball, 2-Antoinette.
- ELEVENTH RACE: 4-Midnight Whiskey, 10-Top Of The Mint, 9-Farragut, 3-Quick Return.
Indian Pride (ninth).
Record for meet: 2-for-20.