Donato’s Saratoga selections for Thursday, July 30

Thursday’s featured race is the John Morrissey Handicap, the ninth race of the day run over seven lengths on the dirt. I like Funny Guy (5-2) because he closed well and won his last race off a long layoff, but would not bet him to win at his morning-line price.

I wrote a simulation for Thursday’s race, and over 1,000 runnings of the simulation, he beat the field in 335 instances, for an almost perfect 33% win rate. A horse that wins 33% of its races would have to pay 3-1 for the bettor to break even over time, and current odds put his return on investment at 86% (100% is the break-even point). If the price increases for Funny Guy, his value could then justify an investment.

When compared to the morning-line odds, the entrant with my best expected return on investment is Celtic Chaos (12-1), who I calculate to have a 9.5% chance to win, for an expected ROI of 114% at his current price. These calculations are based on the field staying intact, and changes to the entrants and prices will affect the value of one’s potential bet. Just a reminder that the best horse in the field does not always carry the best value.

FIRST RACE: 4-Sugar Fix, 5-New Day Dawning, 7-Little Red Frog, 2-Punk Rock Princess.
SECOND RACE: 1-Unrelenting Force, 2-Danegeld, 3-Royal Suspect, 9-Senrima.
THIRD RACE: 2-Foxtail, 5-Tula, 7-Rosebud’s Hope, 4-Team Win.
FOURTH RACE: 2-Our Lady Of Loreto, 5-Rousey, 4-Kefaliani, 3-Charlotte Webley.
FIFTH RACE: 5-Rinaldi, 8-Graded On A Curve, 10-Ghost Giant, 9-Catch A Cab.
SIXTH RACE: 7-Checksandbalances, 8-Valletta, 1-Claddagh’s Run, 5-More Mango.
SEVENTH RACE: 5-My Man Flintstone, 8-Mister Bobby, 2-Starship Bubba, 3-Fed Funds.
EIGHTH RACE: 2-Blue Atlas, 1-Pecatonica, 4-Out Of Trouble, 6-Myhartblongstodady.
NINTH RACE: 6-Funny Guy, 4-Amundson, 5-Bankit, 9-Celtic Chaos.
TENTH RACE: 14-Adios Amigos, 15-Money In The Bank, 7-Disciplanarian, 13-Daring Disguise.