We enter Wednesday’s races a little over a third of the way through the Saratoga meet, and I’d like to take an opportunity to share some of the statistics from the picks that have been running in this column with the hope that some new angles can be found therein.
Over 144 races to date, the top selection has had an average-placed finish of 3.26, while the second and third picks have averaged finishes of 3.61 and 4.38, respectively. The top pick has finished in the top two in exactly half the overall races this year, a total of 72 times.
In races where the top selection matches the off-odds favorite, which has happened 66 times, that entrant has won 27 races, good for about a 41%-win rate, and a 1.5% profit on win bets in that situation.
Boxing the top three picks in a trifecta in every race in the meet has hit 18 times and shown a 6% profit.
Though they are not all printed, every horse in every race is ranked and tracked. That ranking is then compared to the overall finish of the entire race, and the correlation of that relationship is calculated. As it stands today, there is a moderate positive correlation of .3 between these picks and the actual outcome, which over 144 races have proven to be statistically significant.
The first race, a 2 1/16-mile hurdle, is expected to be postponed by NYRA.
- FIRST RACE: 2-New Member, 3-Iranistan, 7-Mutasaawy, 1A-Elucidation.
- SECOND RACE: 5-The Joke’s On You, 6-Naughty Prince, 4-Sneads, 8-Mine The Coin.
- THIRD RACE: 7-Freewheeler, 5-More Graytful, 4-Luna’s In Charge, 3-Inside Info.
- FOURTH RACE: 2-Bellera, 4-Nonna Madeline, 1-Golden Award, 3-Always Shopping.
- FIFTH RACE: 7-Big Time Lady, 9-Rossa Veloce, 8-Minerva Doubleplay, 6-No Mo’ Spending.
- SIXTH RACE: 1-Twisted Tom, 5-Control Group, 2-Hit It Once More, 1A-I Love Jaxson.
- SEVENTH RACE: 5-Harlem Heights, 4-Apurate, 3-Love On The Run, 1-Black Magic Woman.
- EIGHTH RACE: 6-Super Dude, 4-Dunph, 8-Han Sense, 7-Prompt.
- NINTH RACE: 3-Espresso Shot, 5-Kreesie, 4-She’s Got You, 2-Traipsing.
- TENTH RACE: 9-Beyond Brown, 2-Women Not Easy, 1-Cainudothetwist, 5-Herwaze.
Walkoff (second), Kilmarknock (fourth), Fort Worth (eighth), Moretti (ninth), Buona Final (tenth).
Record for meet: 35-for-144.