American Monarch (7-5), enters Wednesday’s Grade III With Anticipation Stakes, run at 1 1/16 miles over the Mellon Turf, with the makings of a formidable favorite. He has a good pedigree and a solid turf win at the same distance under his belt. After simulating today’s races, I give him about a 38% chance to win.
However, that price and expected chance to win put American Monarch right at his break-even before even one bet is placed. Over 10,000 simulations of the race, his average win payout was $.07. Though expected to be the best colt in the field, he begins the day with limited value. However, should his price rise at all, one would almost have to put him on their ticket.
The best contender to American Monarch should be Fire At Will (7-2). The Michael Maker-trained horse debuted in the same race as American Monarch, but had an unlucky run. He has since bounced back with a :47 second 4-furlong workout and seems ready to make amends. Fire At Will switches to jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for Wednesday’s race.
- FIRST RACE: 1-Iranistan, 6-Noah And The Ark, 1A-Taper Tantrum, 5-Bodes Well.
- SECOND RACE: 6-Hey It’s Tati, 5-Madam Deputy, 2-Buffet, 1-Grape Therapy.
- THIRD RACE: 4-Nashville, 1-Searing Chase, 5-Breithorn, 2-Democratic Values.
- FOURTH RACE: 7-Bad Beat Brian, 8-Megacity, 5-Twelfth Labour, 1-Mr. Shortandsimple.
- FIFTH RACE: 3-I Prowl Alone, 2-Royal Suspect, 5-Brunate, 1-Ringgood.
- SIXTH RACE: 8-Voting Agreement, 13-Saratoga Love, 4-Doll, 11-Corey Scores.
- SEVENTH RACE: 7-Tide Of The Sea, 8-Succeedandsurpass, 5-Junkanoo, 3-Bluegrass Parkway.
- EIGHTH RACE: 3-Control Group, 1-Freaky Styley, 5-Our Last Buck, 6-Blugrascat’s Smile.
- NINTH RACE: 2-American Monarch, 5-Fire At Will, 1-Blame The Booze, 4-Winfromwithin.
- TENTH RACE: 8-Bricco, 9-Selfmade, 7-Diannesimpazible, 16-Pier Forty.
No Mo’ Spending (third), Red Ghost (fifth), Gandy Dancing (eighth).
Record for meet: 82-for-340.