Donato’s Saratoga selections for Thursday, July 22, 2021

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Thursday’s ninth race is a $103k Allowance run at 1 1/8 miles over the dirt, and it provides one of several opportunities to potentially capitalize on a morning line longshot.

Ice Princess (8-5) enters as the favorite, having placed in the Grade III Comley Stakes at Aqueduct last November and earning the field’s highest Beyer in the process. She has proven the most in the field and retains jockey Irad Ortiz in her second race off her layoff, but she comes in with flaws.

She failed as the favorite in the two races following a drop in class from her Grade III runs, and hasn’t won in her last seven outings dating back to February 2020. Her run style does not perform well against my historical model for this race, either. She has the most talent in the field, enough so that she must be my pick to win, but at her morning line price, I would have to look elsewhere for value.

Love and Love (3-1) has more of the early speed I would look for in this race and has had competitive finishes against similarly classed fields in recent races, but has been doing so in sprints. She broke her maiden at this distance, but hasn’t run it since.

The value in this race belongs to Subsidiary (12-1), who ran an excellent race on May 15 at Belmont where she finished in-hand and still distancing herself from the competition for a 7 1/4-length win. That race was 1 mile in length and was a drop in class from Thursday’s race, but much of what made that race work is replicable here.

Subsidiary reunites with jockey Luis Rodriguez, under whom she picked up that win, and she has some of the best early speed in the race, potentially allowing her to set the pace as she sees fit. It will not be easy, but this race is within her ability to win, and while Ice Princess and Love and Love both grade out higher, Subsidiary enters the day as the most undervalued entrant on the card.

FIRST RACE
5-Galway Kid, 6-Gibrafolo, 4-Redicean, 3-Baltimore Bucko.

SECOND RACE
6-Pregame, 3-Wicked Mad, 7-Recidivist, 5-Rudy Rod.

THIRD RACE
Potts Entry (1-Viradia and 1A-Violent Trick), 3-Mongolian Humor, Rice Entry (2-Sirenic and 2B-Forever Changed, 4-Gentle Annie.

FOURTH RACE
7-Stunning Munnings, 4-Red Venus, 2-Dancing Kiki, 1-Courageous Girl.

FIFTH RACE
8-Miss Interpret, 4-Expand the Map, 10-Pizza Bianca, 1-Fishers.

SIXTH RACE
7-Quick Power Nap, 3-Derrynane, 2-Saratoga Kisses, 4-Quaysadilla.

SEVENTH RACE
6-Quantitativbreezin, 5-Cause to Dream, Barrera Entry (1-Bustinmygroove and 1A-Gagliano), 9-Traffic Lane.

EIGHTH RACE
5-Lovely Lucky, 6-Mina Maria, 7-Lagom, 3-Here Comes Jackie (4-Singita Dreams becomes the top pick if the race moves to the Main Track).

NINTH RACE
3-Ice Princess, 6-Love and Love , 7-Subsidiary, 5-Portilla.

TENTH RACE
12-Stella Mars, 7-Dorothy’s The Boss, 11-New York Supreme, 2-Omra.

WEDNESDAY’S WINNERS

Run Curtis Run (fourth), Raffinity (fifth), Let’s Be Clear (sixth), Forza Di Oro (ninth).

 

Record for meet: 17 for 50.

Categories: Sports

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