2022 Buffalo Bills preview: Over or under projected win total of 11.5?

Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott addresses the the media prior to the NFL football team's training camp in Pittsford, N.Y., Sunday, July 24, 2022. (AP Photo/ Jeffrey T. Barnes)
PHOTOGRAPHER:
Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott addresses the the media prior to the NFL football team's training camp in Pittsford, N.Y., Sunday, July 24, 2022. (AP Photo/ Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Each Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday from through Sept. 2, we will take a look at the projected win totals for each team in the NFL. 

NOTE: All over/under win totals are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. 

BUFFALO BILLS

2021 record: 11-6, first in AFC East; defeated New England, 47-17, in wild-card round; lost to Kansas City, 42-36, in OT in divisional round

2022 bye week: 7

Most impactful addition: LB Von Miller (free agency from Rams)

Most impactful departures: WR Emmanuel Sanders (still a free agent), G Jon Feliciano (free agency to Giants), DB Levi Wallace (free agency to Steelers)

Easiest part(s) of schedule: If any team in the AFC East wants to get this team, they need to have a lead going into Thanksgiving, because the Bills will play the traditional game at Detroit on Nov. 24 and have 10 days off before heading to New England with games that follow against the Jets (home), Dolphins (home), Bears (road).

Toughest part(s) of schedule: Opening on the road in prime time against the defending Super Bowl champs in Los Angeles then coming home to play Tennessee, the AFC South champ. Later, the Bills sandwich their bye around a trip to Kansas City before coming home to play the Packers in Week 8.

Caesars over/under win total as of Aug. 3: 11.5 – Over -140 / Under +120; favorite to win Super Bowl LVII at +600.

Book it: OVER. This basically is the same team from last year with Von Miller added to the mix on defense, and while the division may be slightly tougher than it was in 2021, it’s not that much different. It’s tough to see how this team doesn’t win at least one more game than they won in the regular season last year, as besides the Patriots and the first-place teams they play, this really isn’t all that tough of a schedule.

Is this the year Josh Allen takes the leap into elite status? (Some say he is already there.) If there’s one negative for Buffalo, it’s that their offensive line is average at best, but what we know of Allen is he can escape pressure with the best of them. If he can be the quarterback that was picked off 10 times in 2020 instead of the one who threw 15 interceptions in 2021, the Bills will be playing into February.

That being said, it is tough to play this at -140, and I certainly wouldn’t bet the under at +120. This is a no play for me.

Projected finish: 12-5

Categories: Sports, Upstate Action

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