Each Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday through Sept. 2, we will take a look at the projected win totals for each team in the NFL.
NOTE: All over/under win totals are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
2021 record: 9-8, third in AFC East; did not make playoffs
2022 bye week: 11
Most impactful additions: WR Tyreek Hill, T Terron Armstead, RB Chase Edmonds, Coach Mike McDaniel
Most impactful departures: G Jesse Davis
Easiest part(s) of schedule: There’s little question the only chance this team has to make a run will be from Weeks 5 to 12 when they face the likes of the Jets, Lions, Bears and Texans. To have any shot at the playoffs, they’ll have to win all four of those and two of three during that stretch against Minnesota (Week 6), Pittsburgh (Week 7) and Cleveland (Week 10).
Toughest part(s) of schedule: Last season, the Dolphins started the season 1-7, and although they went on an incredible run to just miss the playoffs, the hole was just too deep to dig out of. They could find themselves in a similar spot, as they’ll need to find a way to win two of the first four against New England in Week 1 (at home), followed by Baltimore (road), Buffalo (home) and Cincinnati (road).
A five-game stretch leading up to the season finale at home against the Jets is just brutal. Miami has a three-game road trip from Week 13 to 15 at San Francisco, the Chargers and Buffalo then Green Bay (home) and New England (road) in Week 17.
Caesars over/under win total (as of Aug. 3): 8.5 – Over -135 / Under +115; odds to win Super Bowl LVII at +4000.
Book it: UNDER. On paper, there’s no question this team is better (personnel wise) than they were last season when they won eight of their final nine games. That finish wasn’t enough to save the job of Brian Flores (what a mess), so the Dolphins have a new coach in McDaniel, a Mike and Kyle Shanahan disciple who should give this offense a boost.
With Hill, a more-experienced Tua Tagovailoa, an All-Pro left tackle in Terron Armstead coming from the Saints and a slight uptick in the running game with Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, it would be easy to think this is a playoff team.
However, this schedule is just incredibly tough, and to make matters worse, it’s brutal in stretches (as we mentioned above). Even if the Dolphins find some way to jump out to a 7-4 start or so, which seems unlikely, the NFL did this team no favors with an insane three-game road stretch that includes back-to-back weeks on the West Coast. There could be multiple losing streaks of three or more.
That final stretch seems too tough to overcome, which seems to put some nice value on the under if you’re a gambler. If you want to play it safe, just stay away from this team.
Projected finish: 7-10