2022 New York Jets preview: Over or under projected win total of 5.5?

New York Jets' Michael Carter (32) takes part in drills at the team's practice facility on  July 30 in Florham Park, N.J. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)
PHOTOGRAPHER:
New York Jets' Michael Carter (32) takes part in drills at the team's practice facility on July 30 in Florham Park, N.J. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)

Each Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday through Sept. 2, we will take a look at the projected win totals for each team in the NFL.

NOTE: All over/under win totals are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

NEW YORK JETS

2021 record: 4-13, last in the AFC East; did not make playoffs

2022 bye week: 10

Most impactful additions: Their top four draft picks – DB Sauce Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson, DE Jermaine Johnson and RB Breece Hall – and TE CJ Uzomah, G Laken Tomlinson, DB DJ Reed

Most impactful departures: DE Shaq Lawson, S Marcus Maye, WR Jamison Crowder

Easiest part(s) of schedule: The final four games against Detroit (home), Jacksonville (home), at Seattle and at Miami are all winnable, but what will this team’s record be by then?

Toughest part(s) of schedule: The first four games for the Jets are against the AFC North, which is no picnic and obviously includes the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3. Then from Weeks 6 through 9, an 0-4 run through Green Bay (road), Denver (road), New England (home) and Buffalo (home) would not be a surprise.

Caesars over/under win total (as of Aug. 3): 5.5 – Over -175 / Under +150; odds to win Super Bowl LVII at +12500

Book it: UNDER. There might not be another team in the NFL that made more key additions, and, well, the Jets obviously needed to. But will that be enough to get them past the projected win total? A lot obviously will depend on how they start and whether this young group will gain much-needed confidence under a second-year head coach in Robert Saleh.

The fact remains there still are plenty of question marks around quarterback Zach Wilson and a green secondary, which is basically remade from last year.

Hall immediately jumps in as the starting tailback, and there isn’t much depth there. Wide receiver Elijah Moore came out of nowhere to become a nice surprise before missing the final month of the season with a quadriceps injury. Can Wilson find connections with Uzomah, Corey Davis and rookie Garrett Wilson?

This schedule seems too tough, especially early on, to think the Jets can take a big leap forward this season. (Although the future actually could be bright. No, really this time.) One of the more popular future bets is to take the Jets’ over, but that price is absurd, and it tells me not only is there value on the under, but that the total could creep up to 6 before the season starts.

I’ll play this under at +150 – if for no other reason than to fade the public.

Projected finish: 5-12

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