Fantasy football QB rankings and recommendations on target rounds

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) participates in drills at the NFL football team's practice facility in Costa Mesa, Calif. Monday, Aug. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
PHOTOGRAPHER:
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) participates in drills at the NFL football team's practice facility in Costa Mesa, Calif. Monday, Aug. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Fantasy football draft right around the corner?

We’ve got you covered, as it’s time for me to put on the “Guru” hat and begin my fantasy football tier rankings series starting with the quarterback position.

TIER 1

Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes

Recommended target range: Rounds 4-5

These are the only three quarterbacks that I’m willing to spend one of my first five picks on single quarterback formats. Allen offers the best blend of passing and rushing out of any quarterback, and Herbert and Mahomes have established themselves as elite passers capable of throwing for over 5,000 yards. They should go within the first three picks in superflex formats.

TIER 2

Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts

Recommended target range: Rounds 6-8

This next tier features guys that are capable of reaching top tier status, but aren’t quite as safe. Burrow is an elite passer that doesn’t offer much with his legs, whereas Jackson, Murray and Hurts offer elite rushing ability to offset their deficiencies throwing the ball. All four are capable of taking the next step and offer value in the middle rounds.

TIER 3

Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers

Recommended target range: Rounds 7-10

All of these guys are seasoned veterans and have established themselves as trustworthy quarterback options for fantasy managers. However, they don’t offer as much upside as the guys above and are getting up in age. Prescott and Wilson appear to be the safest options of the bunch, but Brady is still at a high level despite turning 45 this year. Stafford and Rodgers are the riskiest since Stafford’s currently battling elbow tendonitis, and Rodgers lost his top weapon in Davante Adams.

TIER 4

Trey Lance, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa

Recommended target range: Rounds 10-12

Lance finds himself as the ideal sleeper quarterback for fantasy managers, and he offers serious upside in the double digit rounds as someone who could be the next elite mobile QB. Carr and Cousins are also quality options since Carr now has Adams and Cousins has a pass-first head coach in Kevin O’Connell. Lawrence and Tagovaioa also are in better situations, so it could be worth waiting to select one of these guys rather than spending an early pick on a top-tier QB.

TIER 5

Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Matt Ryan, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Ryan Tannehill

Recommended target range: Round 12 or later

These are the quarterbacks that could be league winners in superflex formats, as they tend to slip into the later rounds and have enough upside to potentially outperform some of the elite quarterbacks. Winston and Fields are the most intriguing and could also have value in single quarterback leagues, but they probably won’t be worth drafting in those since there are so many options at the position.

Best of the rest: Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Davis Mills, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Deshaun Watson (value could change depending on suspension length)

Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers on Instagram

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