After an NFL Draft that saw just one quarterback taken in the first round, the race to be the league’s top offensive rookie appears wide open.
For evidence, look no further than the odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at Caesars Sportsbook.
That one first-round quarterback is Kenny Pickett of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he is indeed the favorite for the award — but at a robust +900 price. Contrast that with the odds for Defensive Rookie of the Year, where the favorite is +450 and three players have better odds than Pickett.
Betting Pickett is risky, because he’s no guarantee to be the Steelers starter over Mitch Trubisky, especially not at the beginning of the season.
It is true that rookie quarterbacks are more likely to win this award than other offensive positions, but unlike the MVP race — where quarterbacks win nearly every year — it’s not an overwhelming majority. Over the past 15 years, there have been seven quarterback winners, five running backs and three wide receivers. That includes last year’s winner, Ja’Marr Chase, who was drafted out of LSU by the Cincinnati Bengals.
And this season, if Pickett isn’t the winner, no other QB has odds greater than +2500.
“I’d say this is a more wide-open market than usual just because none of these quarterbacks were viewed as elite prospects,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, in a release. “It seems like Kenny Pickett is the only one who has a chance to play in most of the games this season. You’d think quarterbacks are more likely to win offensive awards, but if there’s no one like a Trevor Lawrence who you know is starting Day 1, that definitely opens it up for other candidates.”
Among the top choices for running backs and wide receivers are Steelers receiver George Pickens — who went viral with his physical play during the preseason — who is at +1000, and New York Jets running back Breece Hall at +1100.
Hall, who is expected to see most of the first-team snaps ahead of Michael Carter, is trying to become the first Jets player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Another possibility is wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who has +1600 odds.
After Hall comes a trio of receivers tied for the third-best odds at +1200: First-round picks Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints and Drake London of the Atlanta Falcons and second-rounder Skyy Moore of the Kansas City Chiefs.
London opened as the +500 favorite but suffered a minor knee injury in the Falcons’ preseason opener. He’s expected to be ready for the regular season, but his odds have dropped considerably.
After the trio at +1200 come three more wide receivers all listed at +1400: Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson of the Green Bay Packers and Treylon Burks of the Tennessee Titans.
Pickett has received the most dollars wagered in this market at Caesars, but two of the next three are the two Packers receivers, Doubs and Watson. Accordingly, Watson’s odds have dropped from +1600 and Doubs from a long-shot price of +10000.
The group at +1600 is comprised of Wilson, Dallas Cowboys running back Jalen Tolbert and Buffalo Bills running back James Cook. Tolbert is another rookie whose odds dropped noticeably; he started at +5000 but his price has gone up after a $2,000 bet from a Nevada bettor would would profit $100,000 if Tolbert takes the award.
Here’s the list of odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at Caesars for players up to 100/1:
Kenny Pickett, QB, Steelers +900
George Pickens, WR, Steelers +1000
Breece Hall, RB, Jets +1100
Drake London, WR, Falcons +1200
Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs +1200
Chris Olave, WR, Saints +1200
Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers +1400
Treylon Burks, WR, Titans +1400
Christian Watson, WR, Packers +1400
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets +1600
James Cook, RB, Bills +1600
Jalen Tolbert, RB, Cowboys +1600
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks +1800
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions +2200
Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans +2500
Desmond Ridder, QB, Falcons +2500
Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders +2500
Alec Pierce, WR, Colts +3000
David Bell, WR, Browns +3000
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders +3500
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs +4000
Malik Willis, QB, Titans +4000
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Chargers +4000
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers +5000
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals +5000
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams +6000
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Giants +6000
Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens +6000
Tyquan Thornton, WR, Patriots +6000
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons +6000
Justyn Ross, WR, Chiefs +8000
Zamir White, RB, Raiders +8000
Pierre Strong Jr., RB, Patriots +10000
Sam Howell, QB, Commanders +10000
ZaQuandre White, RB, Dolphins +10000
Tyler Goodson, RB, Packers +10000
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