21ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT – During his victory speech at a Glens Falls tavern Tuesday night, Matt Castelli declared his newly minted one-on-one showdown with U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik to be the most important political contest in America.
“Tonight, whether you’re aware of it or not, this just became the most important race in the country,” said the 41-year-old Castelli, who was clad in boots, blue jeans and a blue blazer. He called the race for New York’s 21st Congressional District, “the frontline battle for the soul of America.”
While Castelli insists Stefanik’s actions and party stature are what give the race its national significance, his framing of the race in national terms makes sense to political science professors, pollsters and fellow politicians. After all, Castelli’s underdog campaign against the U.S. House of Representatives’ third-ranking Republican, who has been in office since 2015, may very well depend on Castelli’s ability to draw broad attention ahead of this November’s election. For her part, Stefanik, 38, this week was quick to frame the campaign for the 21st as a local election.
Castelli, who relocated to Glens Falls from the town of Saratoga, currently faces long odds in the remapped North Country district, which added Republican-leaning territory in Montgomery and Schoharie counties that could shore up Stefanik’s already strong chances. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight had Castelli’s victory odds at about one in 100 in the district that now includes Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer, Lewis, Montgomery, St. Lawrence, Schoharie, Warren and Washington counties, as well as parts of Jefferson, Otsego and Rensselaer counties.
To have a chance, Castelli will have to improve his poll numbers and raise money quickly – two necessities that go hand-in-hand, political science professors say. Out of the gate, it’s clear part of Castelli’s strategy in both these efforts is to nationalize the race.
NATIONAL FRAMING
Castelli likes to say he decided to run in the 21st Congressional District to continue to combat extremism. A former CIA officer and director for Counterterrorism at the National Security Council during the Obama and Trump administrations, Castelli’s job involved hunting down terrorists in Afghanistan and Iraq.
After Stefanik made false claims about the 2020 election and objected to certifying election results a day after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Castelli said he felt called to respond.
“To see her embrace violent extremists and those who enable them here at home, that didn’t sit well with me,” Castelli, a town of Poughkeepsie native and a Siena College alumnus, said in an interview with The Daily Gazette. “I felt compelled over a series of events to honor my oath to the constitution, to support and defend it against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”
Casting Stefanik as a villain who threatens democracy could very well bring more national attention – and more national money – into the race, said Michael Malbin, a professor of political science at the University at Albany who is the co-founder and former director of The Campaign Finance Institute. But, in the end, Castelli also has to present a plausible electability case, something Malbin says is possible since Castelli is running as a moderate in a district that under its current map (2012-2022) voted for a Democratic Congressman prior to Stefanik winning the seat in 2014.
“It’s a plausible case. It’s not an absurd case,” Malbin said.
Castelli will be running on the Democrat and Moderate party lines this November. And while he’s certainly talking at a national level, he’s attempting to bring local flavor to his campaign, in small part, by sharing videos of himself eating burgers at local haunts on social media. So far, his favorite burger is Grizle T’s in Saranac Lake.
THE MONEY CONVERSATION
Still, Castelli has his work cut out for him. As of Aug. 3, Castelli had raised $1,114,515.86 compared to Stefanik’s $7,327,076.16, according to Federal Election Commission data. Of Castelli’s fundraising, $497,930.05 (nearly 45%) came from individual New York donors compared to Stefanik’s $1,375,139.89 (nearly 19%) coming from individual New York donors. To be sure, these numbers don’t account for the final weeks leading up to Tuesday’s Democratic primary or the days since Castelli defeated Matt Putorti and received national attention, including being the subject of a New York Times profile and appearing on MSNBC.
“[Stefanik’s] money is more national than [Castelli’s] by a lot, which is not surprising for a party leader,” Malbin said. “Her fundraising is based very much on her national profile.”
But as fundraising totals come in over the next few weeks, voters will start to get a clearer picture regarding how competitive the race will actually become.
“He’s raised about $1.1 million. That’s a lot for a challenger at this stage — but it’s not nearly as much as what a successful challenger raises to win,” Malbin said. Still, Castelli has “already shown he can raise money against a strong candidate in a primary. But at this point, it’s going to be political momentum and fundraising feeding off each other.”
Castelli said he hasn’t had fundraising conversations with state or national Democratic party leaders.
Jay S. Jacobs, chair of the New York State Democratic Committee, told WAMC this week: “If we can see some polling that demonstrates that Stefanik’s got weaknesses that can be used against her and we might win that seat, then, yeah, we’ll spend some money there. Sure.”
In recent years, national money has flooded into races seen as having broader significance. For instance, in 2020, Kentucky Democrat Amy McGrath raised more than $96 million in her bid against Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, and Democrat Jaime Harrison raised more than $132 million against South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Both Republican incumbents, though, ultimately won by comfortable margins – McConnell by nearly 20 points and Graham by 10 points.
On the other side, New York U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez watched her 2020 Republican challenger, John Cummings, raise more than $11.2 million in a race in which Ocasio-Cortez cruised to victory with more than 70% of the vote.
Stefanik herself faced a nationally backed Democratic challenger in Tedra Cobb in 2020, who raised nearly $5.7 million before Stefanik won 188,655 to 131,995.
Stefanik sees Castelli’s challenge differently.
“While he is desperately trying to appeal to gun-banning, socialist-donating, Biden-supporting donors across the country, North Country voters are going to make this decision,” Stefanik said.
STEFANIK MAKES IT LOCAL
Stefanik, whose campaign has been touting visits and support for local employers, such as with a recent trip to the Walmart Grocery Distribution Center in Johnstown, says the top issues impacting local voters are inflation, gas prices, police support, second-amendment rights and bail reform.
“On top of that, the top of the ticket is going to be the governor’s race,” Stefanik said. “There is no Congressional district in this state that opposes the Cuomo-Hochul Democrats running for governor more than this district.”
Castelli said North Country voters are tired of the shouting coming from both sides of the aisle.
“There is a problem in American politics, and it’s been going on for far too long, where the loudest voices in the room are on the extremes seeking to divide us – Stefanik being chief among them,” Castelli said.
Sally Friedman, a University at Albany associate professor of political science who has written about the balance of local and national elements in politics, said both candidates will be wise to embrace local and national messaging.
“National themes are going to come in on both sides. National money is going to come in on both sides,” Friedman said. “I think some people are going to say ‘Hey, Stefanik, you might want it to be local — but you’re being pretty national, too.’ And I think for Castelli, yeah, it can be national, but you better make it local, too. If either of them tries to make it one, they are making a mistake.”
Castelli said the national significance of the race arises from Stefanik, a high-ranking Republican who has become an unapologetic Trump loyalist.
“I think it is a national race, whether I want it to be or not. Congresswoman Stefanik is now a national figure,” Castelli said. “She’s the one who is leading the party down this very extremist path, one that I hear from Republicans in our district doesn’t seem to reflect their Republican values.”
Friedman and Stefanik said the Republican side can find advantage in Stefanik’s national profile.
“I’ve given this district a seat at the highest levels, which is a positive,” Stefanik said.
Friedman said Stefanik can run on that seniority, too.
“To some extent, she’s got to use her seniority and say, ‘OK, now I’m a Republican leader, maybe I can bring more to my district,” Friedman said. “So she could make the national local.”
THE NATIONAL CLIMATE
This week, Democrat Pat Ryan made a lot of noise nationally by defeating Republican Marc Molinaro in a special election to fill Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado’s seat in the competitive 19th Congressional District. Political pundits have been reading into the result as a sign that Democrats may have more momentum heading into November’s midterm elections than previously predicted, with the Supreme Court of the United States’ Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision and the Biden administration’s recent action on climate change, inflation and student loans playing well nationally for Democrats.
Stefanik herself took some blame in Tuesday’s Republican defeats after endorsing Molinaro and Carl Paladino, a controversial Republican developer who lost a close — and closely watched — primary race to State GOP Chair Nick Langworthy in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
Ryan defeated Molinaro, in part, by championing abortion rights. Castelli said he would lean into similar messaging against Stefanik.
“Certainly, I think choice is on the ballot. There is no greater example of rolling back American freedoms than what happened with the Dobbs decision,” Castelli said.
In July, Stefanik voted against the House of Representatives’ Ensuring Access to Abortion Act of 2022.
“Make no mistake, these proposals go far beyond codifying Roe v. Wade, showing House Democrats have no limits in advancing their far-left anti-life agenda,” Stefanik said in a statement after the vote. “This bill removes nearly all protections for the unborn, cripples parental consent for minors, and undermines the health and safety of women.”
WILL THE MONEY COME?
While there is precedent for politicians in positions of leadership losing, it’s not the norm. Friedman pointed to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s 2014 primary defeat in Virginia and Democratic Speaker of the House Tom Foley’s defeat in the 1994 general election.
Castelli likely has already – and will likely continue to – raised some money from Democrats across the country who simply don’t like Stefanik. She’s said she is “ultra-MAGA” and proud of it, and is seen as being on the shortlist of Trump’s potential running mates in the 2024 presidential race, should he run.
But the amount of outside money that flows to Castelli will ultimately be determined by his campaign’s viability, Malbin said.
“To be competitive financially, [Castelli] will probably need to raise another million and a half in the next two months. That’s a lot, and for that to happen, the race needs to get on people’s radar screens as being a plausible takeover,” Malbin said. “When you look at national fundraising as we get into September and toward October, we’ll have a clearer picture of how strong a case the Democrats in the House might have for keeping a majority. At the same time for both parties, we’ll have a sense of which races are the swing races, the target races. That will solidify in the next month. And at that point, national contributions given by politically intense partisans will go to the potentially decisive races.”
In other words, if Castelli shows strong poll numbers, money should come his way against a name like Stefanik, Malbin said.
U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko, a Democrat who once represented the 21st Congressional District, albeit in a prior iteration, expects money to flow in for both sides.
“But you can only do so much with money. You have to have the track record, the goals that meet the needs of the constituents, and I can tell you from having represented this area, there is an intellectual capacity here that is very strong,” Tonko said. “People are inquisitive, they will check out the facts. I think you’ll see someone who is an expert at national security tout his qualifications, and that will be a strong message.”
Time will tell what shape the 21st District race takes and whether enough national money comes in to make a difference for Castelli, Friedman said.
“Could it, yeah? Because of who Stefanik is and because the people who want her out really want her out,” Friedman said. “And because it would be a big deal for the Democrats if they could capture the seat.”
Andrew Waite can be reached at [email protected] and at 518-417-9338. Follow him on Twitter @UpstateWaite.
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