Green Bay Packers 2022 preview: Over or under projected win total of 11?

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers warms up before the start of an NFL preseason football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers Thursday, Aug. 25, 2022, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)
PHOTOGRAPHER:
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers warms up before the start of an NFL preseason football game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers Thursday, Aug. 25, 2022, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

GREEN BAY PACKERS

2021 record: 13-4

2022 bye week: 14

Most impactful additions: WR Sammy Watkins, LB Quay Walker (first round), DT Devonte Wyatt (first round), WR Christian Watson (second round)

Most impactful departures: WR Devante Adams, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, LB Za’Darius Smith

Easiest part(s) of schedule: Beginning with a trip to London in Week 5 to face the Giants, the Packers come home to play the Jets before traveling to Washington. Despite this technically being rated the 11th-easiest schedule in the NFL based off last year’s records, there is no other stretch where Green Bay has sure-fire victories.

The first game against Detroit is sandwiched around at Buffalo and then Dallas. The first Chicago meeting is after at Minnesota in Week 1 and at Tampa Bay in Week 3. The second time around isn’t much easier.

Toughest part(s) of schedule: As one can read, I am not buying this is in the top half of easiest schedules. The toughest month of the campaign comes and ends on Sunday night with an Oct. 30 game at Buffalo and Nov. 27 at Philadelphia. In between besides Detroit, Green Bay gets Dallas and Tennessee at home.

Caesars over/under win total (as of Aug. 27): 11 – Over +100 / Under -120; Odds to win Super Bowl LVII at +1200

Book it: UNDER. Yeah, yeah, I know a Golden Rule is never bet against Aaron Rodgers, but the fact is is without his two biggest receiving threats from the past few years in Adams and Valdes-Scantling could be too much to overcome. Will rookie Christian Watson and be able to fill a No. 2 role right away?

At running back, the Packers have a nice 1-2 punch with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, but Jones seems to disappear through periods of a season, and I am not sure his heart is in Green Bay. Meanwhile, I wonder if Dillon won’t soon be the every-down back?

The defense was ranked ninth for the second straight season after being 18th in Coach Matt LaFleur’s first year. Seems to me they overachieved and could regress back to the middle of the pack. (Pardon the pun.)

Simply put, sort of like betting against Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, you put money against Rodgers to succeed at your own peril. With this schedule and the personnel, however, I don’t see how the Packers win more than 11 games, which means if you take the over your ceiling very well could be a push.

As far as their division (-170), conference (+500) and Super Bowl odds, there just isn’t any value. If anything, I would look to the two other teams in the division not named the Chicago Bears for a play. The only thing you can play here is the under 11.

Projected finish: 10-7

Categories: Upstate Action

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