2021 record: 7-10
2022 bye week: 14
Most impactful additions: WR Drake London (first round), QB Marcus Mariota, QB Desmond Ridder (third round), RB Damien Williams
Most impactful departures: QB Matt Ryan, WR Russell Gage
Easiest part(s) of schedule: Like many of the other teams with win totals at 6 or below, it’s tough to find an “easy” part of any schedule.
That being said, if Atlanta has ANY chance of going over their win total from Caesars and other sportsbooks, they will have to win two of four games (at the minimum) during a four-week stretch in November and early December when they travel to Carolina, host Chicago, go to Washington and host Pittsburgh.
Toughest part(s) of schedule: The opening stretch through Week 7 could leave this team at 1-6 or even 0-7.
Opening against the Saints and then traveling to the Rams should be 0-2, and then after a winnable game at Seattle, they get Cleveland, at Tampa Bay, San Francisco and at Cincinnati.
The Falcons also end the season after their latest of late bye weeks at New Orleans, at Baltimore, Arizona and Tampa Bay, which easily could be a four-game losing streak on the way to trying to secure the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
Caesars over/under win total (as of Aug. 30): 5 – Over +125 / Under -145; Odds to win Super Bowl LVII at +25000.
Book it: UNDER. With a win total this low, I tried my damnedest to find a way to take the over, but in the real world, I think five wins is the absolute ceiling for this team. (And I might be generous by saying they’ll win four.)
Considering they were in the bottom seven in both offense and defense and did almost nothing to improve, they could be in the 30s in both this year. In other words, besides not being able to score or allowing the other team to do so, what could go wrong with another Falcons coach in Arthur Smith who is underacheiving?
Let’s don’t spend a lot of time on a team whose starting quarterback was a backup for the Raiders last year and whose starting quarterback-to-be is a third-round draft pick set to be thrown to the wolves around Week 7 or 8 if everything goes just wrong.
Drake London will end up being a great pick for these Falcons, but is he ready to be a WR1? Kyle Pitts is one of the top receiving tight ends in the league, but he’ll often be double teamed and jammed at the line. Cordarrelle Patterson is fine as a backup running back, but your lead back?
Oh, and that defense. Ouch.
No values to play here, including the under 5 wins since it is priced so poorly. Just stay away and watch the Dirty Birds be one of the top opponents to pick in your knockout pools.
Projected finish: 4-13
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