NFL top picks include a teaser and home dog: Best Bets for September 11

San Francisco 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo, right, and offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik take part in drills at the team's practice facility in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sept. 1. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
San Francisco 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo, right, and offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik take part in drills at the team's practice facility in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sept. 1. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

Here are our best bets for Sunday, Sept. 11:

TOP PLAY

The play: NFL teaser, 49ers -0.5 over Bears and Colts -1 over Texans

The odds/bet: -120 ($48 to win $40)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: Both games at 1 p.m.; neither on TV locally

Our take: I normally don’t mess with “too good to be true” bets, but seriously if this one misses a lot of people are going to be ripping up their Survivor Pool entries.

When you put together a teaser, you try to make sure you either break through key numbers of 3, 6 and 7, and this bet scratches off all those key boxes. Granted, both teams are on the road, but my power ratings say both these spread should be a little bit larger than they are.

San Francisco should be an eight-point favorite against a Chicago team that will struggle to win four or five games this season, while AFC South favorite Indianapolis might be a 10-point favorite in this same game if it would have been played next month.

It’s all about value, and just needing these teams essentially to win is a no-brainer. (I probably shouldn’t have said that out loud. Knock on wood or something. Quick.)

PRIMETIME HOME DOG

The play: NFL spread, Cowboys +2.5 over Buccaneers

The odds/bet: -110 ($16.50 to win $15)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Our take: I have said it all week: I just don’t get this spread. Of course, the last time I said that was Thursday, and Buffalo made sure I wouldn’t go 272-0 with my NFL picks on the first night.

I am sticking with what my analysis tells me. Both teams have issues with their offensive line, and both have frailty at wide receiver. That being said, I am buying the Cowboys defense and Dak Prescott, especially at home to open the season in prime time.

“But wait. Tampa Bay has Tom Brady back.” Yeah, I have certainly been wrong about him before, but that long layoff before finally coming back and his weird presence since coming back strikes me odd.

In the end, the only thing I am truly basing this pick off of is I think Dallas is a better team than Tampa Bay, and to be getting points – especially nearly a field goal when they lost by two at Tampa in last year’s opener – tells me we’re getting value here.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Saturday’s best bets

College football: Kentucky +6 over Florida (WON $30)

College football: Washington State-Wisconsin under 49.5 (WON $15)

Saturday’s profit/loss: +$45 (2-0)

Total for the week: +$77.50 (7-3)

Total for September: -$92.60 (7-11)

Total for 2022: -$141.40 (230-260)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369).

Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369).

Categories: Upstate Action

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