On surface, Mahomes vs. Herbert might not be what it seems
Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.
Here are our best bets for Thursday, Sept. 15:
TOP PLAY
The play: NFL, Chiefs-Chargers under 54
The odds/bet: -110 ($44 to win $40)
The book: Multiple, including Caesars Sportsbook
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime)
Our take: First off, this is as much fading the public as it is the fact these two teams are coming off short rests in high-scoring games.
There’s no question there’s some overreaction from last week’s scores baked into this total, which opened at 52 and shot up as high as 54.5 before settling back down at 54. More than 75 percent of the tickets here are on the over, which has helped prompt many sharps to go the other way.
Both teams were near the middle of the pack in the league in yards allowed last week (Chargers were 11th and the Chiefs were 17th), and some of the points and yards Kansas City allowed are a bit skewed as they came in garbage time with the game well at hand.
Expect all the stars to be just a little off (see next pick below), which will help keep this game in the 20s.
PLAYER PROP PARLAY
The play: NFL player prop parlay, Patrick Mahomes to throw for fewer than 297.5 yards and Justin Herbert fewer than 283.5.
The odds/bet: +245 ($10 to win $24.50)
The book: Caesars Sportsbook
Our take: Staying with the “stars to be a little off” theme, why not start with the biggest two stars of this game. Mahomes could rely a bit more on Clyde Edwards-Helaire and rookie Isiah Pacheco a bit more than just the combined 17 carries they received last week, as we all know Coach Andy Reid likes to mix things up a bit.
Meanwhile, Herbert not only is playing on short rest like Mahomes, but he will be without his favorite target, Keenan Allen, which could change how much he even attempts to throw the football.
There certainly is value in two lines the linesmakers seem to be begging the public to take the over on both.
HOW WE’VE FARED
Wednesday’s best bets
MLB money line: Nationals over Orioles (LOST $30)
MLB parlay: Mets over Cubs and Dodgers over Diamondbacks (LOST $10)
Wednesday’s profit/loss: -$40 (0-2)
Total for the week: -$19.30 (2-4)
Total for September: -$175.40 (9-17)
Total for 2022: -$224.20 (232-266)
NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)
Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).
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