Dissecting Browns at Steelers on Thursday Night Football: Best Bets for September 22

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) is tackled by New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) in the first half during an NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022. (AP Photo/Justin Berl)
PHOTOGRAPHER:
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) is tackled by New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) in the first half during an NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022. (AP Photo/Justin Berl)

Each day, one of our experts will offer up a best bet (or two or three) that mobile sportsbooks are offering. It might be a traditional spread bet, a player prop or one of the various odds boosts that books offer.

BY JIM DERRY

Here are our best bets for Thursday, Sept. 22:

TOP PLAY

The play: NFL, Steelers +4 over Browns

The odds/bet: -110 ($33 to win $30)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime Video)

Our take: This line opened last week at -3 before shooting up to as high as Cleveland -5.5, and Pittsburgh since has been gobbled up by the sharps and sent this line back down to just above where it belongs.

At least one major book had this as low as -3.5 at 1:30 p.m., which tells me the overall line could still be headed in that direction.

We still like the Steelers, as even without TJ Watt and the limited sample size, they still have shown they can do a decent job in stopping the run, and what else does Cleveland have with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback?

We’re not inclined to go as far as to take the money line at +170, but it might not be a bad play, considering we don’t know how the Browns will respond to last week’s excruciating last-minute loss to the Jets. Meanwhile, we think the Steelers can do just enough on offense to keep this close late.

LOW TOTAL, GO LOW WITH ’EM

The play: NFL total, Browns at Steelers under 38

The odds/bet: -105 ($10.50 to win $10)

The book: Caesars Sportsbook

Our take: This, too, has been changing. In fact, while we were digging up lines, DraftKings went from 38.5 to 38 while we were on the screen for 2 minutes.

Still, that’s not enough to scare us away from taking this super-low under, as it could be a slugfest (snooze fest) with two very below-average quarterbacks in Brissett and Mitchell Trubisky.

There will be plenty of running the football, which could make this one of the shorter games of the season, and we wouldn’t be surprised if it finished below 31 or 32 points.

HOW WE’VE FARED

Wednesday’s best bets

MLB total: Giants at Rockies under 10 runs (WON $30)

MLB total: Cubs vs. Marlins over 6.5 runs (WON $10)

Wednesday’s profit/loss: +$40 (2-0)

Total for the week: -$22 (3-3)

Total for September: -$204.40 (15-24)

Total for 2022: -$253.20 (238-273)

NOTE: If a line or odds are minus, it considers the juice one must lay to place the bet. Ex: Team A is -160 on the money line, one would have to bet $160 to win $100 (or $16 to win $10). OR Team B is a 5-point favorite at -110, one would have to bet $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10.)

Conversely, on positive lines, if Team C is +140 on the money line, a $100 would bring in $140 (or $10 to win $14).

Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369).

Categories: Upstate Action

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