After squeezing out a win at home over the Chicago Bears last week, the New York Giants will travel across the pond to London for the opening Sunday game of NFL Week 5 against the Green Bay Packers. Each team enters this matchup with a 3-1 record, with all but one of their six combined victories coming by a lone score or less.
After playing three straight weeks at home, New York prepares for its second straight meeting with an NFC North opponent as a moderate underdog. Caesars Sportsbook evaluates Green Bay as an eight-point favorite with the contest’s over/under total at 42.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Time/TV: 9:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL Network
Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Packers -8
Money line: Packers -385, Giants +300
Over/under: 42
Analysis: While the presence of Aaron Rodgers typically invokes the idea of a Packers offense with blistering pass efficiency, Green Bay’s approach to winning games so far this season has relied on just about everything but the league’s reigning MVP throwing the ball. The Packers boast the seventh most rushing yards in the NFL, while their defense has allowed the third-fewest passing yards. Rodgers surprisingly has Green Bay ranking only 17th in passing yards, and while he has thrown no more than five interceptions across each of the past four years, he has already recorded three in the first month of the season.
Meanwhile, under head coach and former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, the Giants find themselves leading the NFL in rushing yards. Saquon Barkley is the leading individual rusher and is one of only two players averaging more than 100 yards per game on the ground. Daniel Jones also has played a key role in New York’s premier rushing status, averaging the highest yards per carry among quarterbacks with more than 10 attempts other than the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson.
The Packers’ defense is one of only 12 to concede at least 500 yards rushing. Such a weakness should be something the Giants can take advantage of, but it is also worth mentioning that New York has the NFL’s second-least productive passing offense at just under 140 yards per game. Given Green Bay’s aforementioned pass defense and that they tie for the sixth-most sacks while the Giants’ offensive line has given up the seventh-most, the Packers may have an easier time honing in on their opponents’ backfield than usual.
As a final boost for Green Bay, the Packers received good news Friday in the removal of their two starting offensive tackles and former all-pro cornerback Jaire Alexander from the team’s injury report. Now that Rodgers has optimal edge protection and his team’s defense has arguably the best member of its secondary once again available, New York will have a considerably difficult time stopping Green Bay from earning a fourth straight victory.
In the teams’ past 10 meetings, the favorite covered the spread eight times by more than double digits, while favorites playing in London are also 18-13 against the spread going back to 2007. Keeping those trends in mind with recent developments and performance, the Packers seem to be in a good position to cover.
Prediction: Green Bay 24, New York 13
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Categories: Upstate Action
