After a poor second half from Josh Allen prevented his team from covering the spread on Sunday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers last weekend, the Buffalo Bills will travel downstate to face the New York Jets in Week 9 of the NFL season.
The Jets play their second straight AFC East opponent following a loss to the New England Patriots, which marked the third defeat at home for one of the league’s most surprising teams with a better-than-.500 record midway through the season.
Entering their first meeting this season, New York is a double-digit underdog, as Caesars Sportsbook favors Buffalo by 11½ points and sets the day’s over/under total at 46.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Time/TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Bills -11½
Money line: Bills -650, Jets +460
Analysis: Last week’s betting heartbreak concerning the Bills showcased why backing a spread of 10 or more points in any NFL game carries considerable risk. Buffalo looked well-positioned to cover heading into halftime up 24-7, but interceptions on back-to-back possessions in the fourth quarter ultimately gave the Packers enough slack to cut their margin of defeat down to just 10 points.
The result marked the Bills’ first loss against the spread at home this season, as well as the first cover for a visitor in the last seven meetings between Buffalo and Green Bay.
Thus, given the Bills’ attachment to a double-digit spread for the second straight week and third time across their last four games, wagering on the point total figures to inspire much more confidence ahead of the team’s fifth road trip. This holds especially true considering the Jets are one of the league’s biggest surprises at midseason.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense has helped all Bills games go under this season but one, which was Week 2’s 41-7 win over the Tennessee Titans that saw the over hit by just a single point.
Among quarterbacks who have thrown at least five interceptions this season, New York’s Zach Wilson ties New England’s Mac Jones for second-fewest touchdown passes with just three. The Jets are also only their second game into navigating life in their offense without Breece Hall, who was averaging the fifth-most yards per carry in the NFL among running backs with at least 80 rushing attempts before a season-ending injury.
Given the inconsistency and uncertainty of New York’s backfield opposite a stout Bills defense yet to allow more than 20 points in any game this season, the safest wager in this matchup rests with the under.
Prediction: Bills 24, Jets 13
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Categories: Upstate Action