Bills at Patriots odds preview: Point spread, prediction for Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen talked a selfie after last Thursday's game against the Detroit Lions in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen talked a selfie after last Thursday's game against the Detroit Lions in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Week 13 of the NFL regular season (yes, it is already Week 13) will begin with a Thursday Night Football matchup featuring two AFC East foes. The New England Patriots are set to host the Buffalo Bills at 8:15 p.m. at Gillette Stadium.

The Bills, who are no longer the favorite to win the Super Bowl at Caesars Sportsbook, are 8-3 following last week’s 28-25 victory over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Quarterback Josh Allen orchestrated the game-winning drive with a 36-yard strike to Stefon Diggs, which allowed Tyler Bass to nail the 45-yard field goal in the final seconds.

Buffalo has won back-to-back games and is currently second in its division. What’s really interesting is that the Miami Dolphins have a +26 point differential, while the Bills have outscored their opponents by league-best 110 total points. 

Bill Belichick’s Patriots are sitting above .500 with a 6-5 record, but that still puts them last in an AFC East that currently features three playoff teams. The Patriots actually have a +37 point differential, a mark that is second in this division behind the Bills. Last time out, New England suffered a 33-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving night.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bills as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 43.5.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. Thursday, Amazon Prime

Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Bills -5

Money line: Bills -225/Patriots +185

Over/under: 43.5

Analysis: Both teams played on Thanksgiving Day, meaning this isn’t really a short week for either team with a full week in between games. That can only be a good thing, as some Thursday Night Football games have been extremely difficult to watch this season.

It is interesting to see the market cool a bit on the Bills, who have picked up two wins over the last two weeks after a brief two-game skid. Buffalo, and Allen in particular, appear to be out of their funk from early November. Allen threw for 253 yards and two scores against Detroit last week.

Yet Allen hasn’t fared well against the Patriots in his career, going 3-4 in seven starts while completing 57.1% of his passes to go along with a 11-6 touchdown-interception ratio. The Pats rank sixth in the league in defensive scoring, giving up an average of 18.4 points per contest.

The Bills might somehow be a bit underrated after being everyone’s Super Bowl pick, but the Patriots are also a bit undervalued in the market. Buffalo might win on Thursday, but New England should cover the spread.

Prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 20

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Categories: Upstate Action

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