Bills at Bears odds preview: Point spread, prediction for Week 16 matchup

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The Buffalo Bills will travel to the Windy City for a frigid cross-conference clash with the Chicago Bears in Week 16. Kickoff is slated for 1 p.m. on Saturday as part of a compelling 11-game NFL slate on Christmas Eve.

According to NFLweather.com, it is expected to be 6 degrees while feeling like -13 degrees at kickoff on Saturday. This comes after the Bills defeated the Miami Dolphins in a snow game last weekend.

Buffalo has all the momentum entering this matchup, winning five consecutive games since its brief two-game skid in early November. The Bills (11-3) pace the AFC standings, while ranking No. 1 in overall DVOA at Football Outsiders. This team is the favorite to win the Super Bowl with a price of +340 at Caesars Sportsbook and is considered the top team in most power ratings.

The Bears, meanwhile, are having a vastly different season. Chicago is 3-11 and would have the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft if the season ended today. Yet it appears the Bears have found their franchise quarterback in Justin Fields, who has become the third quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards in a single season.

Fields’ prolific play as a second-year quarterback has been a bright spot in a down year. The Bears have lost seven games in a row, with their last win being a 33-14 victory over the New England Patriots on Oct. 24.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bills as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 40.5.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears

Time/TV: 1 p.m. Saturday, CBS

Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Bills -9

Money line: Bills -455/Bears +345

Over/under: 40.5

Analysis: While these two teams carry completely different win-loss records, neither squad has won much money for bettors this season. The Bills are 6-7-1 against the spread on the year, while the Bears have a 5-8-1 ATS clip against the closing number. Buffalo has had 10 of its 14 games finish under the point total, but Chicago has a 9-5 record toward the over.

It typically isn’t a good idea to lay a big number in the NFL, especially since the weather has gotten colder. Favorites of at least nine points have gone 0-5 ATS in the last five such games dating back to Week 14. The Bills are 2-4 when favored by nine or more points during the 2022-23 season.

Having said all that, these teams are playing different levels of football right now. 

Fields is exciting and will likely make a few remarkable plays again Saturday. But the Bills will be able to decide what number they want to put up against a Bears’ defense that ranks 30th by giving up 25.6 points per game. Josh Allen and Co. should win by double-digits to keep a stranglehold on the No. 1 seed for another week.

Prediction: Bills 28, Bears 17

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Categories: Upstate Action