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The NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Sonoma, one of the trickier tracks on the schedule that tends to see chalk favorites be the play for bettors. While there’s always the potential for an upset winner — even at this challenging road course — drivers that start out front at the Toyota/Save Mart 350 tend to stay out front for the duration of the race.
This week’s ‘Fast Five’ picks feature a trio of Chevrolet drivers that are among the betting favorites, with a couple of underdogs from the Ford camp mixed in.
FAST FIVE PICKS
Chalk play
Kyle Larson (+500 to win)
Larson is arguably the most talented road course racer in the garage, and he should be among the leaders this week as a former Sonoma winner. It’s been an up-and-down season for Larson so far, but we’re banking on an upswing this week and are willing to pay up for him as a chalk favorite since no other driver in the field has the same level of upside.
Best value
Ross Chastain (+1000 to win)
Chastain hasn’t run as well lately as he did early in the season, but this week is the perfect opportunity for him to get back on track since road courses favor his driving style. Chastain’s teammate, Daniel Suarez, won here last year, so we could see Chastain breaking through this week considering he’s due for better fortunes while leading and has strong equipment.
Trending up
William Byron (+1000 to win)
Byron isn’t known for being a road course specialist like his teammates, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, but he’s been strong almost everywhere this season. He should be among the leaders, despite this not being one of his traditional top tracks. There’s no driver in the Cup Series that has stronger numbers than Byron, so we’ll bank on him delivering a win this week at a 10-to-1 value.
Mid-pack play
Kevin Harvick (+2500 to win)
Harvick’s final season has been a mixed bag, as he’s run well in several races but hasn’t had enough speed to regularly contend for wins. That could change this week at Sonoma, a track that Harvick thrives at and has won on before. His elite driving skills should help overcome the mediocre equipment that Stewart-Haas Racing has had him work with lately.
Longshot play
Brad Keselowski (+4000 to win)
Keselowski used to be one of the top road course racers in NASCAR. While he isn’t among the favorites like he used to be, he managed a top 10 finish at Sonoma last season in what was a down year for him. Keselowski has seen improvement across the board in 2023, so he’s someone to keep an eye on as a 40-to-1 long-shot value.
2023 TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350 FULL FIELD ODDS
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
+500 to win
Kyle Larson
Tyler Reddick
+550 to win
Chase Elliott
+800 to win
Kyle Busch
+1000 to win
Ross Chastain
William Byron
+1400 to win
Daniel Suarez
A.J. Allmendinger
+1600 to win
Austin Cindric
+2000 to win
Chris Buescher
+2500 to win
Martin Truex Jr.
Alex Bowman
Kevin Harvick
Christopher Bell
+3000 to win
Ryan Blaney
+3500 to win
Michael McDowell
Joey Logano
+4000 to win
Brad Keselowski
Chase Briscoe
Denny Hamlin
+4500 to win
Ty Gibbs
+10000 to win
Justin Haley
Erik Jones
Bubba Wallace
+20000 to win
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
+25000 to win
Austin Dillon
+30000 to win
Zane Smith
Ryan Preece
+40000 to win
Aric Almirola
+50000 to win
Harrison Burton
+75000 to win
Andy Lally
+150000 to win
Corey LaJoie
+200000 to win
Ty Dillon
Todd Gilliland
+500000 to win
Josh Bilicki
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