Rain continuing today and snow melt continuing through the weekend are expected to contribute to moderate flooding in the area, according to the National Weather Service.
The immediate Capital Region is to get between 1 to 2 inches of rain, with possible higher amounts in some areas, meterologist John Quinlan said.
Temperatures are also expected to rise, possibly into the low 50s.
“When you put all that together, the river just basically can’t take that amount of runoff in that short period of time,” Quinlan said.
National Weather Service projections for Schenectady have the Mohawk River reaching flood stage sometime late tonight or early Saturday morning.
Projections as of Thursday evening had the river level cresting at about 7 a.m. Saturday at 225.2 feet. Flood stage is 223 feet.
Such a crest would put water in the Stockade between Ingersoll Avenue and Ferry Street. At 226 feet, three-fourths of Ingersoll Avenue would be flooded, along with half of North Avenue and Ferry Street.
There are also several variables that could change the forecast, Quinlan noted, among them being ice jams.
If an ice jam forms, that could send water levels rising further, causing flooding earlier than expected and in a short period of time.
Another variable is the amount of rain that falls, not only on the Capital Region but elsewhere.
In the Catskills, as much as 4 inches could fall on areas, Quinlan said. Rainfall there finds its way to the Capital Region by way of the Schoharie Creek.
The Gilboa Dam area is expected to hit flood stage this morning at 1,130 feet and crest at 1,132 feet at 7 p.m. today.
The Schoharie Creek at Burtonsville is projected to hit flood stage at 6 feet mid-morning and crest at 9.1 feet tonight.
The Hudson River at Troy is expected to hit flood stage of 21.5 feet tonight and crest at 25.5 feet at about 7 a.m. Saturday.
In Schenectady, fire officials were monitoring the situation, Deputy Fire Chief Michael Gillespie said. The department had yet to get flooded cellar calls to any real extent Thursday evening.
Schenectady County, too, was monitoring the situation, spokesman Joe McQueen said.
“A lot of that, as always, depends on what the ice wants to do,” McQueen said.
Rain was expected to start tapering off late this afternoon or early evening.